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Diabetes Workforce Service Forecast

Lead: Helen Snell

This Diabetes Workforce Service Forecast was informed by literature, diabetes care service and workforce data, population and forecasting data, patient experience in diabetes care, and also innovations that are occurring in diabetes care services in New Zealand.

The forecast identified the following:

  • Diabetes prevalence is increasing in New Zealand at a mean rate of 8-9% compounded per annum and is a high priority for the Ministry of Health
  • Diabetes incidence rates are expected to increase 1.5% per year (reflecting the obesity epidemic)
  • In 2011, the estimated number of people with diabetes is over 237,000 and is estimated to increase by 50% by 2021 without effective prevention programmes
  • Diabetes prevalence is higher among Maori (5-10%), Pacific (4-8%) and Asian Indian (4%) populations compared with New Zealanders of European descent (3%)
  • About 90% of those with diabetes have type 2 diabetes (T2DM), but the prevalence of both type 1 diabetes (T1DM) and gestational diabetes (GDM) is also increasing
  • Type 2 diabetes is increasingly being diagnosed at younger ages, and even in childhood
  • Mortality is expected to decrease at a faster rate among people with diabetes than people without diabetes due to the better management of diabetes

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